Steep QPTR & DAU decline despite other metrics increasing

I apologise in advance if this is just some poor decision I made myself, but after asking around other developers and examining the analytics multiple times, I’ve come up empty-handed for a solution.

June 5th - I release my game, I start an ad campaign. DAU peaks at 1.6k on the 9th of June, QPTR sits at 0% as I haven’t yet hit the algorithm

June 21st - Home recommendations begin to pick back up, DAU increases back up from near 0 to 1.5k, QPTR sits at 1.62%

June 29th - Home recommendations continue to rise, DAU increases to 6.8k, QPTR sits at 1.76%

July 6th - I release the first big update for the game in tandem with an Event, DAU rockets up to 13k, QPTR sits at 1.49% (my best guess for the drop here was that I wasn’t getting a high enough recommendation amount before - this value was perhaps more accurate to the true QPTR w/bigger sample size?)

Following this update, I had a similar amount of DAU the day after, we hit a CCU peak of 170, but immediately after our DAU dropped and has continued to drop, in addition to our QPTR. Since the 6th of this month, we’ve been declining and are currently at 1.8k DAU and 0.96% QPTR

This is despite the fact that, during our periods of higher QPTR and DAU, our other statistics were much worse - some even abhorrent; our D1R and D7R was near non-existent, though now are approaching benchmark. Our average playtime/session time was outside of benchmark, now we sit right about in the middle for both. Our conversion rate wasn’t in benchmark, now it is. Our ARPDAU wasn’t in benchmark, now it is.

Even after releasing a second large update in tandem with an Event, it had next to zero effect on our DAU, QPTR or other stats.

As such, I really don’t understand what’s gone wrong - the game doesn’t have the most amount of content right now, but I don’t see how this grossly affects QPTR when all of our other stats have gone up. Am I missing a link? It’s insanely disheartening to see our other stats going so well, but now sitting at 10ccu despite the massive improvements our analytics faced.

Here’s the game link, in-case that’s important:

I’m also wondering why this happens


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Just an update in-case someone stumbles upon this in future; my best guess right now is that we had a demographic shift, albeit that’s a weak guess.

In an attempt to fix, I’ll be adding a new thumbnail or two, enabling thumbnail personalization to cater the thumbnails to their winning age groups, will see how it goes and report back.

Would really appreciate regardless if someone more knowledgeable than me could comment with their experience :smile:

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