Yeah kinda weird question, i’m not sure if it’s really possibly but maybe through the game analytics I could estimate it?
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If you see the concurrent players going down bit by bit, start taking notes how many players have left during that Time Gap
Here is an ugly graph
As you can see (only for demonstration) .7 is the decreasion rate. Else you’d have to calculate the average of how many users have left each day/month/year.
So now you take the time and add it to the point it was the highest before it has been getting down (in the example, it’d be 3.5 million here) And I will use someting like this:
t = log(3500000) / 0.7
or to have a general formula
t = log(StartingValue) / DecreasionRate
[or log is known as In]
and I’d get ~9.34 and to round it it’d be around 9 days. And that’s how should know when game will die out
If I have made a mistake, correct me
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Oh okay I get it thank you but also could I show you some graphs and maybe you can just guesstimate?
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Sure I guess (refer time (days/months/years))
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Alright thanks so this is in the last 30 days, my game was created on 12/19/2023
So here are some of the engagment graphs, what do you think?
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Oh, it’s really hard (maybe impossible) to estimate that something will decrease when it always increases back and keeps increasing in your graph and/or just decrease a bit, since there is no time where it especially decreased exponentially. I guess you have to wait and see until the game starts to fall off a bit and then you can use the formula (also seeing Roblox, ur time would be 2 days each)
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I’d say mid 2024-early 2025 is when it would die out.
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