I got bored and wanted to test out probability vs theoretic probability. I created a roulette bot that minimum bets 1 dollar, but if it were to hit the same color X amount of times, it would bet on the other color but with a maximum bet - far more substantial than the minimum.
local color = 1
local lastColor = 0;
local amountColorHit = 0
local startingBalance = 1000000
local balance = startingBalance
local incrementUntilMaxBet = 9
local minBet = 10
local maxBet = 10000
local currentBet = minBet
for i = 1, 10000 do
local colorPicked = math.random(1,2)
if colorPicked == color then
balance = balance + currentBet
else
balance = balance - currentBet
if currentBet == maxBet then
print('lost this one')
continue;
end
if colorPicked == lastColor then
amountColorHit = amountColorHit + 1
if amountColorHit >= incrementUntilMaxBet then
print('bet increased to max')
currentBet = maxBet
color = color == 1 and 2 or 1
continue;
end
else
lastColor = colorPicked
amountColorHit = 0
end
end
currentBet = minBet
end
local endingBalance = startingBalance - balance
print(endingBalance >= 0 and "You won "..math.floor(endingBalance) or "You Lost "..math.floor(endingBalance * -1))
This is the code that I ended up creating, and from the results that you can see is that you should never rely on theoretic probability. The sample ended up being 50/50 with losing and winning. So maybe think next time before you say a number or color is “Bound to Hit”.
Lesson learned
